Friday, October 12, 2018

Wisconsin Preview

Time: 7:30
Location: Big House
Weather: 45 and no rain
Stream: ESPN App
Line: Michigan -9.5

I watched the BTN Football in 60 Nebraska at Wisconsin from last weekend.   Which reconfirmed what I already knew about Wisconsin football.  They want to run and run often.   The Badgers had 370 yards rushing but gave up 407 yards in the air to the high powered Nebraska Air Raid offense.   :)

Tale of the Tape

Mich Pass O vs. Wisc DB's = Michigan
Wisc. Run Game vs. Michigan Run D = Wisconsin
Mich Run Game vs. Wisc Run D = Michigan
Coaching = Push
Intangibles = Michigan
Special Teams = Push
Coaching = Push
Talent = Michigan

Paul Chryst and Jimmy are good friends and you can see why by looking at both teams.  They both prefer to run to pass and play great defense.  The issue for Wisconsin this year, is they haven't been playing very good defense.   If Nebraska had figured out a few quarters earlier they could pass the ball on the this defense it would have been a more competitive game.

Wisconsin will run Taylor more and more.   When he gets tired they bring in Deal and Groshek to run even more.   Hornibrook is a better passer then he was last year but still can struggle with pressure and long 3rd downs.   His favorite target is the TE Ferguson to keep the chains moving.

Yell, I'm sleeping well tonight if...…………..
  • Shea has a night and is hitting WR's and TE's for over 300 yards
  • Michigan can stop the run on 1st and 2nd downs 
  • Higdon and Evans combine for 150+ yards rushing
  • Michigan covers Wisconsin's TE's
  • The Big House at night is a huge advantage for the Wolverines 
Read, "Who Moved My Cheese" if...………….
  • Hornibrook is hitting passes on 3rd downs
  • Taylor is finding holes and getting first downs
  • Michigan over plays the run, which opens to many holes in the secondary 
  • Michigan's O line struggles to stop Wisconsin blitzes 
  • Michigan's night game struggles continue 
Wisconsin is down their top pass rusher and has only had 5 sacks all year.   They need to blitz to pressure Shea.  Which means the middle of the field will be open for the TE's and Slot WR's.   I expect Grant Perry and Zach Gentry to have huge games.  Paul Chryst is no dummy and knows that real estate rushing the ball will be difficult in the Big House against the #1 defense in the nation.   So he is going to play action a ton on first down and hopes Michigan bites.   Wisconsin Rushing Game vs. Michigan Rush D is strength on strength.  

Michigan has a clear advantage on offense and if Pep continues to run on 1st and 2nd downs it will be win for Wisconsin.   The Badgers want a close, low scoring game, that they can win at end of the night.    The key for the game is first downs for both teams.  If Michigan can stop Taylor and get Wisconsin in a 2nd and 3rd and long, that is a Win.   

This running game will test the Wolverines defense and it's banged up defensive line.  I expect Devin "the missile" Bush will have a huge night with 10+ tackles.   If Michigan can win the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball it will be a long night for the Badgers.   If Wisconsin can run the ball and hit their TE's and WR's to keep drives alive, the game will be very quick and be a big advantage for Wisconsin.    Michigan needs a big night from Shea,TE's and WR's.  The defense needs to shut down Taylor and crew.   Wisconsin doesn't make mistakes and it will be important for Michigan to protect the ball.   I think this line is to high and the game will be much closer then many think.  

Michigan 21 Wisconsin 13