Friday, November 20, 2015

Penn State Preview

The fish was this big
Time: Noon
Location: Happy Valley
Weather: Sunny High 48
Line: Michigan -3.5

I want to go on record early that I don't like this game.   I don't have a good feeling.   Michigan hasn't been playing well on the road and Penn State is the best team the Wolverines will have faced away from the Big House since Utah.   PSU has a good defensive line, a good young RB, a pro prospect at QB and they are well rested after coming off a bye.  

There are a couple positive things for the Wolverines.  Michigan always seems to play better at Noon, Penn State looked awful against Northwestern two weeks ago and Penn State plays a Pro-Style offensive that is well suited for Michigan's defense.

Tale of the Tape:

Michigan OLine vs. PSU DLine = PSU
PSU OLine vs. Michigan DLine = Michigan
Michigan Secondary vs. Hackenberger =  Lewis and Peppers
Intangibles = Penn State
Coaching = Michigan

Both team have a ton of similarities: they both are pro-style offensives, have good defensive lines, questionable offensive lines,  at times this year inconsistent QB play and both programs are trying to get back to their traditional top 10 programs.  

Penn State was relaxing and healing last week on a bye week.   Michigan was giving all the effort they could muster in a double overtime win.  Michigan is beat up on the defensive line and is lacking a running game.   If this was played at a neutral site, I think Michigan is probably a 10 point favorite.  The Wolverines are better team but will ne The Wolverines are beat up and have a huge (depending on how this weekend goes) game next weekend.

Sing Hail to the Victors if....................................
  • Rudock continues to play great and is the best QB on the field
  • Michigan LB's play much better
  • GMat has figured out the defensive line losses
  • PSU has less then a 100 yards on the ground
  • Stribling knocks down passes
  • Great play calling against PSU Dline

Say, I guess this isn't our year for a Big Ten Championship if.....................
  • Hackenberg plays like Tom Brady
  • Saquon Barkley becomes a Heisman candidate in 2016
  • Penn State plays like they usually do against Michigan
  • Michigan can't stop the run
  • Michigan can't pressure Hackenberg
  • Lots of points are scored on both sides

I'm not sure where this team is mentally.   Yes, winning games helps but last weeks game might have taken a toll on the Wolverines mentally and physically.   The Wolverines also know about the game a couple days after Thanksgiving.    This will be a great barometer on where this team is going into the Ohio State game. 

I'm very worried about our LB play and health of the defensive line.  If Michigan can find a way to stop Penn State offense, they will win this game.   Michigan will not be able to run right at Penn State's defensive line and will have to have creative play calls to move the ball.   Time to see what this team is made of.

Michigan 23 Penn State 20

*In a classy move by Ohio State and Michigan State they will each have a special Chad Tough sticker on their helmet this weekend.   Well done by both programs!


ScottyDoggs said...

I have to disagree with you again Bob, I feel good about this one... but I do make the disclaimer that my opinion amounts to the bubbles that come out of a duck's behind (when swimming).

Bob said...

ScottyDoggs, I hope I'm wrong and your right and Michigan wins by 28 points!

Voice of Reason said...

This may be the time to pull the covers off of Brian Mone if he's ever going to play this season. I don't know if he's practiced this week or even in Happy Valley at this time which could be a moot point, but if you have a chance to win a Big Ten title, you don't save (or Red Shirt) players in position of dire need. IMHO!!!

I like Michigan's chances in spite of psu's bye week. Cliché alert: If Michigan deserves to be the Big Ten champs they need to win this game.

Unknown said...

NW put up 227 yards, Maryland 248 and Ohio State 315, against the "vaunted" PU defense...yeah, and Army threw for. wait for it. ONE pass attempt, so not thinking they are a legit #2 passing defense. We will have our way, offensively, provided Rudock and Smith stay healthy. Hackenberg is scary, but we got Peppers and Lewis, so we will tame the lions. I'm thinking 31 to 14 UM.