Citrus Bowl Preview

Time: 1:00 PM EST
Location: Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL
Weather: 82 - 10%  rain
TV: ABC
Line:  Michigan -4


Bowl games are funny things, some programs consider them a reward for a tough season, others consider it an exhibition.  When predicting a winner, you try to find the teams that want to be there  vs. the ones that don't.   Nebraska didn't even win 6 games and found themselves in a bowl game against a quality UCLA team.     Nebraska wanted to be in a bowl - UCLA didn't and Nebraska upset the Bruins. 

The Citrus Bowl could be a similar situation.   Michigan didn't go to a bowl game last year after Brady Hoke left this program on fire.  Florida did go bowling but was coached by Michigan's DC this year (DJ Durkin).   Both programs replaced their head coaches after last season and have had successful first years.   Florida played in the SEC Championship and had thoughts of Playoffs or at least a New Years Big 6 Bowl.   They lost to FSU and Alabama back to back and that playoff dream slipped away.   UF recently had a bunch of NFL Draft announcements and a few suspensions.

Tale of the Tape:
Michigan WR vs. Florida CB = Florida
Michigan DL vs. Florida OL = Michigan
Michigan OL vs. Florida DL = Florida
Michigan QB vs. Florida QB = Michigan
Intangibles = Michigan


Both programs should know each other very well.  Michigan's former DC and now head coach of Maryland, helped create the dominate Florida defense.  (Did Jimmy drain DJ's brain on the Gators before he left for Maryland?).  Michigan's 1 year OC under Brady Hoke, Doug Nussmeier is now the OC at Florida.   These teams should know each other very well.  

UF has had serious trouble moving the ball on offense under Nuss and with recent suspensions could have mostly freshman on the offensive line.   That should be a huge advantage for the likes of Worm, Taco, and Big Willy.    Florida has also watched the Minnesota, IU and Ohio State games and knows Michigan has had trouble stopping the run against an athletic QB. 

Sing Hail to the Victors if...................................

• Michigan can move the ball on the UF defense
• Michigan can get TD's instead of field goals
• Michigan has some sort of running game
• Peppers and Rudock are healthy
• Michigan defense shuts down the UF offense

Yell, I just got bite by a gator if........................................

• Michigan's Defense can't stop the new offensive formations we will likely see from Nuss
• Michigan can run against the Florida Defense
• Michigan's WR can't get separation against the Florida DB's
• Michigan offense gives Florida offense a short field
• Michigan LB's continue to look lost

If you want a ton of points and a lot of offense, this is not the game for you.   Both teams have a very good secondary and want to stop the run.   If Michigan is going to win this game they will have to have a game plan that sets up the run through their passing game.   Michigan's offense is a stronger unit then Florida's offense, but has also turned the ball over in spurts and turnovers could push the game towards the Gators.  

Michigan's biggest advantage on offense is their TE's.   I expect Darboh and Chesson will have trouble with Florida's CB and Michigan will have to use Butt and Bunting a ton to move the sticks and get into the red zone.   I expect if Peppers is heathy enough to play, he will only take defensive snaps.  Rudock went to high school in Miami and will want to play well in his last college game in front of family and friends.   I just hope he is 100% healthy after a months rest.    He will have to play very will in getting the ball out fast and throwing in tight windows.   If he is not healthy or not even playing, all bets are off.

I like Michigan in this game, because the Wolverines are excited to be in a bowl game and have Harbaugh as their head coach.  This entire team remembers this time last year.   Florida is playing in their home state but could have their heads elsewhere.   Michigan will have to play smart, physical football to win.  I hope this game doesn't come down to a special teams mistake.

Michigan 17  Florida 9