Monday, November 26, 2018

A Lot of Oysters But No Pearls

Michigan finished this regular season 10-2.  When Hoke was here getting Shane Morris concussed we would have made a deal with the devil to get back to 10-2.   So for the most part, Harbaugh has done his job at Michigan.   This program had PTGD (post traumatic game disorder) before Harbaugh even got here.  I was never worried about losses to MSU,  that was always going to turn around at some point.  Sparty is always going to go Sparty.

What makes zero sense to me is how Harbaugh and Brown prepare for the Ohio State game.   We all assumed that Harbaugh was "holding back" this offense to not show OSU anything.  We were wrong.

I'm sure you have heard this saying regarding preparing for a team that runs the triple option:  They're very difficult to prepare for in a week but if you have multiple weeks, you can stop them.  

That is where Harbaugh and Brown are letting Urban beat them.   OSU has been playing with the devil all year.  They have looked terrible against teams like Maryland, Minnesota, Indiana, and Purdue boat raced them.  I have finally figured it out.   Ohio State doesn't prepare for their weekly opponent, they prepare to beat Michigan every week of the season, hoping the Michigan prep will beat the other Big Ten schools as well.

Now I don't recommend this strategy for Michigan as this will get you beat by teams that shouldn't beat you, but its a better way to understand Ohio State.  For example, you can see how the above the triple option saying would be applicable to Don Brown's defense.    It's very hard to prepare for in one week but if you have been preparing for 10 weeks its much easier to beat.

Don Brown solves problems with aggression.   Which means he blitzes the hell out of QB's and bets the rush will get there before the QB can make the correct read.   This also leaves the middle of the field wide open for slants and QB runs.   Urban beat Don with QB runs with JT and beat Don on Saturday with slants.   The Michigan defense played poorly against Rutgers and Indiana and bottomed out on Saturday.   It's great that Michigan plays a great man to man defense, but if that's all they play then Michigan is very one dimensional.   If this ass whipping didn't come last Saturday, it would of come against Alabama in the Orange Bowl.

Now to the offense.

A good offense plays power against teams that struggle with power and spread teams out that struggle against the spread.   Trying to run what you do best even if its 100% predictable will get you beat by good teams 100% of the time.   Bo had a 100 great players and had a talent advantage at every position.  He could run the ball and beat you with defense.   That doesn't work anymore.

Since I'm not in the room,  I have no idea if this is a Jimmy or Pep problem.    My guess is this is a Jimmy problem.   Michigan needs some fresh ideas on offense and stop being so damn predictable.   What Michigan does today is fine to beat the mid-tier Big Ten teams but will not return this program to elite status.

So the game plan for Saturday as far as I can tell, was to run what Michigan does well on offense and play man to man against OSU fast wide receivers.   That is a 23 point game plan loss right there.

Jimmy said last year, Michigan had to get bigger and stronger after OSU beat them.   This time he needs to look in the mirror to find the change that he needs.

  • I couldn't find much upside from Saturday's result.  I guess I did save about $5000 in travel costs to the Big Ten Championship and to Miami for the Orange Bowl.  

  • Bowl Game, I know it was an over reaction saying that Michigan should turn down a bowl bid, I guess the options are that Michigan is in the Rose, Fiesta, or Peach Bowl.   Michigan could face UCF in the Peach if they beat Memphis in their Championship game.   It will be interesting to see what Michigan team shows up at a bowl game.   Yah Peach Bowl! 


Dvzk said...

An overreaction that I agreed with!it doesn't matter what bowl they get I'm done wasting my time this season watching Michigan football.

Abu Ahmed said...

No pressure on the QB...Haskins had all day to chop up Michigan pass defense. We had no sack, no hurry up, nothing. Even if you blitz, you have to get to get to the QB. All the other teams we played we some pressure on the QBs therefore, resulted in quicker more inaccurate throws. Which of course made our DBs looks like 5 stars, all in essence they are garbage. Watson should have taken out of the game. Ambrey Thomas should have replaced him, since he is much faster. I don't think that would have help a lot, but at least it is an improvement. Our offense did what they are doing for the past 4 years under Garbagebauh. Run, Run, and pass. Again elementary offense. Anyone with some solid defense can stop that. BOB, we have an update..Eric Gray decommitted. Kingsburry is available from Texas Tech, who just got fired. Please, bring him in as our OC...please....Guys winning a championship is like getting a 100% on a test, however, going 10-2 and chance to win 11 is like getting a my book both are A's...I am happy with our overall year....Go BLUE!!!

Abu Ahmed said...
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Abu Ahmed said...

I Know I promised not to write again, but Alex Cruise wanted me to put my thoughts...Listen guys we are a 8 to 11 win team....maybe one day we will make the playoffs...but, be satisfied with winning 8 to 11 games a years....11 wins will come once every 5yrs, maybe?

Goose said...

John U Bacon's next book. The greatest game that never was. A story of the fall rise fall & almoat rise again of Michigan football.

EzmoB said...

Rashan declared for the NFL. Love the kid and wish him nothing but success at the next level! Go Blue!

Doc Holliday said...

Don't blame Rashan for leaving!! Good luck to him!

Steve Zander said...

I like your comment of Ohio State prepares every practice for Michigan. I remember years ago Bo Schembechler said they used to do one thing at every practice that would beat Ohio State.

Tommertoffo said...

This was probably the best, most accurate, and most articulate analysis of the Michigan-OSU game I have read.

Well done.

I love Don Brown's attacking defense....but it needs to be changed when the situation arises. It's the wrong approach to OSU.

Well articulated.

Let's also not lose sight of this reality that became clear Saturday: We are not in Alabama or Clemson's class....perhaps this years Ohio State team (if this Saturday's rendition is the OSU real team). Harbaugh will get us there, however.

Tommertoffo said...

BTW: a Peach Bowl game against at 12-0 UCF team.
I'm going.

Live life, people. I'm surprised by the reality that people want "the best and only the best" all the time.

Well, if you're older than 25, you've realized life isn't like that. Live life to the fullest and enjoy what you have in front of you.

I wish we beat Ohio State. We didn't. It's not the end of the world.

As for me a Peach Bowl or Fiesta or Rose Bowl sounds great.

dude1984 said...

Harbaugh and company need to enter the 21st century. The name of the game is an explosive, high powered offense loaded with high ceiling athletes in the skill positions and a mobile QB with an athletic, fast defense that’s clutch.

When a team can put up 40+ with relative ease against the majority of competition, they can be relaxed about giving up 20 to 30. They can pretty much put together a vanilla game plan of multiple defenses for most games, so in the big games there is not a pattern or glaring weakness to attack.

Of the five teams looking for a playoff spot, four of them are the top 4 offenses (Oklahoma, Ohio State, Clemson, and Alabama in descending order), while defensively only two are in the top 10 for total defense (Alabama at #6 and Clemson at #7…Ohio State is 67th and Oklahoma is 111th!) [Notre Dame is 27th in total offense and 22nd in total defense].

As for the Bowl game I'm hoping Fiesta Bowl...
-It means Ohio State is left out of the playoffs;
-It means more than likely not having to face Florida again (most likely opponent if Michigan goes to the Peach Bowl).
-I'm not travelling to the bowl game, but I'm betting most people would rather be in Phoenix than Atlanta. Phoenix is almost guaranteed to have most days in the upper 60s to mid 70s and sunny...Atlanta not so much.

Abu Ahmed said...
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