Location: State Farm Stadium
Weather: Indoors
TV: ESPN (McDonough/Blackledge)
Line: Michigan -7.5
Here we are again, back in the College Football Playoffs for the 2nd year in a row. This time, Michigan accomplished all of their goals prior, including wins over MSU, OSU, and a Big Ten Championship. As you know, to me those are the most important factors in any season. Though this year feels and seems a little different and this team might have it sights set a little higher than mine.
I like this match-up for Michigan. I think Michigan has stopped offenses like TCU's in the past and has an advantage on offense as well. No team is 100% healthy this time of year, but I sure as hell would have liked Corum in the backfield on Saturday. I do have some concerns about Duggan and TCU's tall WR and will detail that in my letter to Jimmy.
Dear Jimmy,
Welcome back to the final 4 of College Football. I will share a great piece of advice that I heard from PGA Tour golfer Tony Finau as he was leading a tournament on Saturday night and the interviewer asked him: If he was nervous about tomorrow while he tries to clinch his first win on the PGA Tour? He responded, "I'm not nervous, I'm either going to win or learn". Michigan Football had a chance to "learn" last season and now it's time to take another step forward.
I know this past month has been a busy time for you and your coaches. You had to close out most of the recruits in the 2023 class, get a boat load of transfers coming in, and even lose some valuable players to other schools. That is a lot to handle, when you also need to be preparing for a playoff game. Did I mention a holiday and spending time with your family?
TCU is a good team, which is led by their "tough as nails" QB Max Duggan. I'm sure you've watched enough film to know that already. To make your job even tougher, TCU has the #1 ranked WR in next year's NFL Draft in Quentin Johnson who is 6'5. Did I forget to mention TCU's other WR is 6'4? Let's discuss these guys first. Michigan hasn't been great on 50/50 balls this year and the height of these two WR's has me concerned. I'm not an offensive genius, but somewhere there is a TCU game plan to throw it up to the big guys and let's see what happens.
Max is another problem and I'm not talking about his arm. I'm talking about his scrambling ability and turning long 3rd downs into first down and finding chuck yard plays with his legs. Michigan has historically had problems with mobile QB's. Seems like it started with Vince Young in the Rose Bowl and even this year with the Rutgers QB. Michigan has lost too many Ohio State games because their QB kept drives alive. Michigan must have a very good plan to stop Max from running and when he does, hit him hard enough to remember not to do that again. (no penalties, just clean hits) Michigan will need a shadow with speed and the defense line must put fast pressure on him, while staying in their lanes. During the "learning" portion of the CFP last year, we saw Georgia respect the Michigan pass rush so much, they threw the ball very quickly, so the rush couldn't get home.
Michigan on offense must be aggressive as well. We can't have these drives with predictable runs and long 3rd down plays. TCU's offense is too explosive to waste drives by trying to force a run game or a power football narrative. Keep TCU's defense guessing on what is going to happen and the yards and points will be there. Again, Michigan needs to score TD's not just field goals.
I like this team and truly believe they're on a business trip with another step-in mind. The key will be to play the way, you did at OSU and in the Big Ten Championship game. Which was a balanced offense and attacking defense. Your team also played smart and let the opponent make the mistakes with penalties and turnovers. That thinking will need to continue on Saturday as TCU has nothing to lose and is going to throw the kitchen sink at you. Expect the Horn Frogs to go for it on 4th downs, fake field goals, fake punts, trick plays, and everything else.
I love Michgian's advantage on both lines of scrimmages and your ability to run the ball against TCU's 3-3-5 scheme. Have a great game plan, continue to make great adjustments at halftime but most importantly play Michigan Football!
Michigan 38 TCU 21
2 comments:
Maybe I'm foolish, but I do have some reservations about this game. If Corum was healthy and playing, I'd feel a lot better about it as I don't think TCU could of stood up the pounding that Corum and the OL would have dished out. Don't get me wrong, Edwards is a great back, he's just different. He's no bell cow, he's not a guy that will give you 30+ rushes/game. He's a homerun hitter. He'll run for 150 yds on 10 carries. Corum runs for 150 on 30 carries. TCU wants to score quickly, and the best way to stop that is to keep Max Duggan and the TCU offense off the field. Beyond Edwards, I'm not enamored with CJ Stokes or a converted LB. I also have concerns about the tall TCU WRs and how Michigan, specifically DJ Turner hasn't done very well with 50/50 balls. Add in the fact that Michigan DL has struggled at times with pass rush discipline and have let mobile QBs get outside the pocket to make big plays.
Thanks Bob for the preview, excellent as always.
Would not be surprised to see Special Teams come up with a few big plays (blocked punt/return), along with an interception or two brought forth from the persistent pressure laid on Duggan throughout the game.
MICH 41 - TCU 24
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