Friday, November 29, 2024

Ohio State Preview

freep.com

Time: Noon
Location: Ohio Stadium
Weather: 30 and Sunny 
TV: Fox (Johnson & Klatt)
Line: Michigan +20




I dread this post every year.  As you never know what is going to happen in this game.  I've seen over matched teams dominate and I've seen overmatched teams get blown out.  Rivalry games are a different bird and this is the greatest rivalry of them all.  No other game in college football comes close.  It might be the best rivalry in sports.  

Ohio State is ready for its next step after investing $20M in the portal.  Michigan their rival has been dominating Ryan Day of late and coming off a National Championship.  This is stuff that clearly puts the Buckeye fan base into a deep depression and the reason for the $20M .   Good news for the Buckeye faithful, the average QB they got from Kansas State has played well and outside of a close loss to the Ducks on the road, Ohio State is a lock for the playoffs and has reservations for Indy.  

Michigan on the other hand has had a dismal year with a brand new coach and back up QB's trying to salvage a season.  To this point, it really hasn't worked and Michigan is looking at a .500 season with a trip to the Music City.  Michigan hired a washed up DC and wasted the last year of 3 first round draft picks in Johnson, Graham, and Grant.   This will be the last time we get to see those 3 in the Maize and Blue and probably just 2 as Will Johnson in not expected to play.   Loveland Michigan's best offensive weapon is a game time decision.  

So to recap, OSU bought a pro-level team and Michigan is being kept together with crazy glue and duct tape.   Should be a good game.  

Most Michigan fans have already moved on to next season and its own money cannon with the pending signature of the #1 player in the nation Bryce Underwood.  

Hi Sherrone, 
Its hard in the middle of a streak of good news to travel to CBus to take on the highly ranked Buckeyes.  I wish I had some great advice for you.  The fact of the matter is your team without Johnson and maybe Loveland, have only a slim chance to upset the Buckeyes.  

There was a time long ago, before you even thought about coaching, that Michigan dominated this series for about 10 years.  OSU would have great teams until the met the Wolverines.  The iconic Michigan helmets would put the Buckeyes into a trance and they would revert to Northwestern. 

Ryan Day is flustered and it shows.  If you can over prepare for 3 1/2 hours once a year, Day clearly has done that last 364 days.  He knows his job is on the line and there are zero reasons Michigan can leave Columbus with a win.  I'm not sure he would even want to coach his team in the playoffs (or dye his hair for 3 hours a day) if he lost this game.  This is the most important thing in his life.  

With all that said, 100% of the pressure is on the Buckeyes.  Nobody questions who the better team is, so all the pressure is on Day and Company.   Use that to Michigan's favor, keep giving Wink whatever he has been drinking since halftime against IU and game plan sometime special for these guys on offense.  Control the clock, move the ball, score touchdowns, and this is the most important thing:  Play the cleanest game Michigan has played all year.   Which means no turnover and zero stupid penalties.  Keep this a low scoring game and Michigan has a shot! Day would love nothing more then running up the score on you.  

At 3:30 on Saturday the most likely outcome is what it is.  Put that shit behind you at 3:31 and go focus on next season with signing day just 3 days away.   Also fire Wink on Monday and bring in a young guy in the mold of Jesse Minter.   Good luck and play clean. 

OSU 41 Michigan 17

20 comments:

Blue said...

We know what it takes in general to win tomorrow- Running the football, while stopping their run, protecting Warren, while causing havoc on Howard, wining the turn-over battle, playing a smart, hard hitting discipline game throughout, and fielding a healthy team (Johnson & loveland).

Some of the X-Factors-
Pressure - Ryan Day needs this win badly, how does this effect his decision making if still close in the 4th Q?
Weather - 28 degrees at game time, with winds 10-20 mph, how does this effect Ohio State's offensive passing attack?
Physicality - With Ohio State being soft these last three years, how will they react when being smashed, hit, and driven onto the cold (frozen) field?

When these two teams meet you can throw out their records, so they say (perhaps not this year), yet being optimistic where winning this game isn't always based on talent but one's fortitude, determination, grit, moxie, whatever the word that describes what it takes to be an underdog and coming out with a W.
Michigan 27 Ohio 24

Goblu said...

Think this is a realistic projection - Ohio 34, Mich 10

Anything better, I’m happy.

Goblu said...

And we lost Brady Hart. Underwood better be good.

Brady2017 said...

Sherrone lost him. Got to have QB succession lined up. Cant pay $12 million to every recruit. Or maybe we do?

Brady2017 said...

On order to upset Ohio St, the coaching staff will have to pull a rabbit out of their ass. Do I have any faith they will? Nope. None at all.

Goblu said...

Apparently Brady is reclassifying for 2025. Wonder if he offered that to Mich. I would have taken him over Bryce, honestly.

Cormac said...

Brady2017, I disagree that Sherrone lost BH. If you are given the choice between BU and BH, you take BU every day of the week and twice on Sunday. It's a no-brainer. If BH hadn't reclassified, this would be a bigger headscratcher than it already is. I have heard that BH is already finished with HS. Since he reclassified, flipping to TA&M makes more sense. Hopefully Jadyn Davis is ready as the backup next year.

Chowman said...

For Michigan to have a chance, Winky will HAVE to earn his pay check. As Bob has said, Howard is a mediocre QB and Wink needs to confuse him. He can't line up showing something and then just run that defense. Has to do what Jesse and Mike did. Show something pre snap and do something different post snap. And for God sake, if he shows man coverage and then brings blitzes from where we show blitz, its going to be Don Brown all over again.

Chowman said...

Yes and no! While I do agree with Brady that Sherrone lost Brady Hart, that was inevitable once you got Bryce Underwood. In today's college football landscape, you're not bringing stud QBs in year after year. Nobody wants to wait in line. Ironically, BH was probably best suited to wait his turn. Sorry just don't see him playing meaningful snaps next year without getting assassinated! 6'4" 180? that's bean pole skinny. That's break him over a DL knee skinny. He has to put on at least 20 lbs of muscle just to survive at a power 4 level.

Brady2017 said...

He was prob set to come here in 2026 and redshirt a year before starting. Kids don't want to wait now a days. He prob got paid, too. Oh well, plenty of time to get him to flip again and pay him.

Brady2017 said...

Thats actually a good scheme. Confuse Will Howard. He really isn't anything special. I'll tell you after one quarter how this one's gonna end. If all I see is 3 yards and a cloud of dust, forget about it.

Brady2017 said...

If Sherrone thought he was going to get Hart without paying him, then he's delusional. Like i said, still plenty of time to put something together $$$ to flip him.back.

Brady2017 said...

I think Hart read what Bryce got for NIL and it made whatever he got seem like food stamps. There's time to make things right. If Sherrone knows what he's doing.

Brady2017 said...

Seceret- Michigan will wear white cleats for the first time in program history.

goblue said...
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goblue said...
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dude1984 said...

I expect Ohio State to approach this game with a plan that is similar to what Texas and Oregon did. On offense, I expect them to spread the field, play up-tempo to tire out the D-line, and once the backups are in, add in power running to the play calling. If they can limit the big plays, stop them on 3rd and 4th down, and be consistent with solid tackling, I like their chances.

I think Michigan needs to go in and stick to a bend, but don’t break mentality. I think pressing with mixed coverage and bringing 4 or 5, but alternating the 4 or 5 that rush, is key. What I mean is occasionally drop a lineman, and bring a LB and or DB. I guess I’m saying I’d like to see a moderately aggressive approach that uses some deception/misdirection. I think the other key is to not over pursue because Howard can beat them with his legs if given the opportunity, and this would honestly be the worst thing to watch. Get pressure on him, but keep him in the pocket.

On defense, I expect them to load the box and blitz until Michigan can show that they can move the ball through the air. It would be nice to see some quick out, quick slants, and tosses to the RB in the flat mixed in with some rushes. If they can minimize the 3 and outs and capitalize on their opportunities to get TDs instead of settling for field goals, I think they have a good shot at being competitive, but this is obvious.

They key to all of this is having mostly 3rd and short situations, and the best way to get to this is to take what they give you. They need to treat it like a marathon, not a sprint i.e. look to get 3 to 4 yards per play instead of 8+ yards per play. Whenever they call a pass play, they need to give Warren at least one quick, high percentage option, somebody to check down to, and in the worst case scenario of nobody open and or pressure, throw it away or tuck and run depending on the down. I also think they should be overloading a side of the field with WRs to create moving picks and or confusion. I think at a minimum 1 in 8 to 10 plays needs to be a play action pass.

This is truly a situation where prepare for the worse, but hope for the best rings true. While it’s highly improbable that Michigan wins, it’s not impossible. At the end of the day it comes down to playing fast, physical, focused, and smart for a full 60 minutes. They can’t get off to a slow start like they did against Texas, Oregon, or Indiana if they want to have a chance at winning. They can’t win the game with a slow start, but the can definitely lose it. If they want to win, they have to go to the half with no more than a single digit deficit.

szanreno said...

That's alot to ask for with this team and coaches. Loveland now being tabbed as out so....

Ron said...

Go Blue they beat the bucks!!!!

Blue said...

Wink just earn an extension! Go Blue!