Friday, June 12, 2009

Tate Forcier: What to Expect Next Season: Threet 08 or Henne 04?

The summer of 2009 seems very similar to the summer of 2008 for Michigan fans. Michigan will start over at quarterback just like they did in the 2008 season. Sure, somethings are different: the offensive line has more experience in the spread and so does the back up quarterback, Nick Sheridan. But don't be fooled by coach speak (RR says the QB position is still up for grabs), this is Tate Forcier's team in 2009.


As Michigan fans, what should we expect out of Tate Forcier next year? Sitting in June of last year, the Michigan faithful had high hopes for a redshirt Freshman that came to Michigan as a 4 star QB via Georgia Tech, Stephen Threet.

As we all know now, Stephen didn't tear up the Big Ten and didn't even get the start against Utah (Michigan's opening game 2008). He looked decent at times (the Wisconsin comeback) and terrible others (the 100 yard Toledo pick 6). That is pretty much the definition of a freshman QB. Threet's numbers in 2008: 51% completion rate, threw for 1105 yards with 9 touchdowns and 7 pics.


So why will Tate be different? Actually, we don't know he will.

Let's compare Tate to another Freshman starter that had a pretty good first year under center; Chad Henne. Chad came to Michigan has one of the top rated QB recruits in the nation, he enrolled in the summer and was the surprise starter opening day after a shoulder injury to expected starter Matt Gutierrez. Chad had a very nice 2004, throwing for 2743 yards with a 60 percent completed percentage. He threw for 25 touchdowns and 12 picks while leading the Wolverines to the Rose Bowl that year. Chad was named All-American Freshman Team QB in 2004.

I would call those numbers the possible upside for Tate. So what's the difference between Chad and Tate that make this upside possible?
  1. Tate enrolled in January. Chad in the summer. Tate got spring ball and a ton of experience being around the coaches for 6 months.
  2. Tate's QB coach. Tate regularly worked with a QB coach in high school and is probably one of the most prepared QB's in recent memory to start as a Freshman.
  3. Tate is very accurate. Thanks to his high school training and QB coach (and we saw some proof in the Spring Game) Tate hopefully can match Chad's 60% completion rate in 2009.
  4. Tate's mobile. Chad and Threet weren't. They were strictly drop back passers. Tate hopefully will be able to avoid the rush and get some first downs with his feet. Many analysts say your QB needs to get at least one first down with his legs a game. Michigan fans are hoping more for 4-5 from Tate.
  5. Tate doesn't need to win games, just not lose them. You will hear that quote for any Freshman QB so it would apply to Chad and Threet as well. With Tate's mobility hopefully Michigan will be able to have some longer drives and give the defense a break
  6. Tate has the skill set to run the spread. Threet didn't.

So there you have it Wolverines Fans. There is plenty to be optimistic about in 2009, but we will need to remember that: Tate will make Freshman mistakes, still has a thin high school senior like frame, and defenses will do their best to confuse the young man.

So the upside for Tate is: Chad 2004 the downside is Threet 2008. Good luck Tate, the Wolverine faithful is counting on you.

3 comments:

Unknown said...

Thanks for keeping the fans updated! I wish more people posted on this site.

I think Henne had some really damn good players around him and Braylon saved him on a handful of passes. With that said...I would bet both my testicles and my first born that Forcier blows Threet's season out of the water.

He has a better team around him, the o-line (i think) will be solid to really good and Forcier is just flat out better in every aspect of the game.

KB said...

While I love Tate's potential there are three major things about Henne's success.

1. Braylon Eadwards. Edwards saved Henne a number of times by stealing balls thrown at DB. He also broke 40+ yard touchdowns quite frequently. Tate has a number of okay WR but no Braylon. Maybe this offense you don't need it but he definitely helped Henne.

2. Mike Hart. Hart was an unknown, yes, but critical for Michigan and Henne. Not only was he a smart player and team leader, helping keep the team calm, but his pass blocking skills were probably the best in the country. His freshman rushing record of 1,455 yards also helped. Tate has decent running backs and amazing depth with Minor, Brown, Cox, and freshman phenom Smith.

3. Scot Loeffler. Who? Michigan's former QB coach, now with the Gators, is probably the best in the game. He should be a Head Coach soon for a lower tier Big Ten/SEC team soon. He changed Henne's mechanics and helped him look off safeties.

I love Tate and he should lead us to a couple of BCS births but without Edwards, Hart, or Loeffler I think comparing him to Henne is unfair to him. He will set records (QB rushing yards) and he will be great, but he won't beat Henne's freshman season.

Anonymous said...

interesting analysis on your part. Tate obviously has the goods to be a very effective QB. He's a leader and is focused to do whatever it takes to win. It surely will be a thrill to watch him and the others play. Hopefully they will be hungry enough this year and surprise the football world by having a spectacular season.