Friday, December 28, 2018

Peach Bowl Preview

Time: 12:00
Location: Mercedes Dealership, Atlanta
Weather: Indoors
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN APP
Line: Michigan -6.0

Vegas is the best in the business at predicting games and spreads.  I have no idea how they pick spreads for these bowl games?   Players are sitting out and some teams (like Miami) rather be at home then playing in a football game.  Or you just put bad teams up against each other like TCU and CAL that end up with a 10-7 OT game with 9 picks.   This system is working perfectly!

The Florida Gators were a bit streaky this year under new head coach Dan Mullen.  They lost their second game of the year to UK, won 5 in a row, lost 2 in a row, and finished off the year by winning their last 3 games against the murders row of South Carolina, Idaho, and Florida State.

We know how Michigan's season ended and there is no reason to relive that sh*t.

Tale of the Tape
Shea vs. UF's Pass D = Push
Michigan OT's vs. UF's DE's = Florida
Michigan Running D vs. UF's Running O = Michigan
Michigan's Pass D vs. UF's Passing O = Michigan
Intangibles: Florida
Coaching: Michigan

A good friend of mine Augusta J wanted me to go to the game.  He said the Stadium was worth the trip alone.  But alas, I have also decided to skip this years bowl game and head to the Chick-fil-A for lunch instead.

If this game was in Week 3 or 4 of the season, I think Michigan wins by 14 points.  It isn't and this team that Michigan will put on the field will be missing its best player on defense Bush and it's most talented one in Gary.  The offense is missing its 1000 yard runner and its Right Tackle.    Somehow all those changes only moved the line about a half a point.

Michigan is also coming off a train wreck in CBus that will either motivate them or do just the opposite.   Its hard to know.   The videos of practice looks like a team that is focused and is ready to play, but we won't know anything until about 12:15 on Saturday afternoon.

The Michigan coaches also have something to prove.   Pep and Jimmy need to open up the offense and let Shea throw without Higdon in the lineup.  Florida's pass defense is for real and it will be time to see Black, DPJ, and Nico can get separation and win some 50/50 balls downfield.

Don Brown the king of defense, got sent to the Bud Light wine cellar after the disaster in Ohio.  OSU was very clear on how to beat his defense and it will be interesting to see if his unit can respond positively without two very good players and just two weeks to prepare.

Yell, See you next year if...…………..
  • Michigan's passing offense opens up the running game 
  • Michigan's defense isn't shell shocked
  • Getting 11 wins is really important
  • Chase has a big day and goes out a winner like he deserves
  • Michigan can handle UF's athletes
Shake your head and wonder why you attend these games if....
  • This Michigan team looks like the one that played in the Outback
  • Jimmy and Pep are running Evans straight in UF's D line 
  • Michigan's D is lost without Bush 
  • The UF offense is scoring points 
Here is my concern, Michigan is known to struggle with very athletic teams or players.   Even in wins this year, they gave up big plays to elite athletes.   Florida is full of those and if Franks can throw and run for some first downs, the Wolverines will have some issues.  

Florida likes to run the ball, which should be a positive for the Wolverines.  Florida also has tape from the Ohio State game.  Franks isn't Haskins and Mullen isn't Meyer but I'm sure we will see some concepts that beat the Wolverines in Ohio.  

I think the bottom line is Florida's program is on the rise with Mullen and Michigan just took a TKO in their last fight.   The Florida Gators are excited about playing another game, the Wolverines interest is questionable.  Michigan is going to struggle with Florida's DE's and Shea will have little to no time to get the ball down field.    Will Michigan be able to run the ball with Evans, Wilson, and Turner?

Harbaugh needs this win and Florida wants it so they can continue the progress.  

Florida 21 Michigan 17

4 comments:

EzmoB said...

Michigan 21 Florida 14

SecondChance said...

Agree with your Florida pick. Florida 27 - Michigan 20.

EzmoB said...

Our secondary is simply horrible today. Josh M can't tackle to save his life. Horrible game to watch!

Doc Holliday said...

*Eyebrows raised* Our coaches have looked very transparent the last two games. Almost 100 points given up last two games. No offense at all, huddling up down 17 and 21 in the 4th quarter. Run up the middle extravaganza (like all year). This old offense is getting tired. Would love to see McCaffrey next year, but let's be honest, this play calling will win us only games vs average to below-average teams. I can just hear Harbaugh's presser right now. "Onward". Should be his new motto because he cannot win big games.