What does this mean for Michigan Football?

Now what?

Is what most Michigan fans are thinking today. What happens now?

90 days seems like a long time and August seems even longer. In this day and age, we don't like to wait. We want answers and answers fast. The NCAA doesn't work that way, they are slow and make people wait. USC has been waiting 5 years to figure out the Reggie Bush situation.

The thing we do know, is this won't effect Rich Rodriquez job in 2010. But! With the findings/penalties most likely out in the Fall, RR can't have another losing season and keep his job. In his 3 years, he will have gone to zero bowl games and gotten the program on probation. If 2010 is anything like 2008 or 2009 on the field, Coach Rod will be looking for another job. At this point, I think that is pretty obvious.

So this is a make or break year for Coach Rod, no doubt. Before the NCAA letter, I would have said, he has until the end of his contract. Now he has to he end of 2010. A bowl game will maybe keep his job an 8-3 record will get people to forget "practice watch gate" ever happened. RR's contract has a cause in it for major violations. If Brandon wants to get rid of RR after 2010 he will have proper cause and most likely will not have to pay his buyout.

So that's the deal with the coaching situation. What about the overall program?

Brian at Mgoblog, did a great interview with a guy that runs an NCAA compliance blog. (isn't the Internet great!). You should read the full interview but here is what the compliance guy thinks Michigan is looking at in August:

Brian: Is there any possibility Michigan escapes a major infraction at this point? What do you think Michigan's penalties will be? If you think some of the accusations are walked back, what would they be in that case?

It's almost a certainty that come October or November, Michigan will be back on probation. The Committee on Infractions generally doesn't start flimsy cases. Look again at USC. Since the original Yahoo! Sports report about Reggie Bush, the COI could have sent a Notice of Allegations as a fishing expedition. But given the fact that they were dealing with a major football program, they couldn't afford to have the case blow up in their face. So they continued investigating, interview, asking for documentation, and working with USC to develop the case until they had a slam dunk.

I'm also confident the same five charges in the Notice of Allegations will be in the final report. Like I said earlier, the excessive practice is the most likely candidate to be reduced, but Michigan lacks the best tool for doing so: detailed logging of practice time during that period. Consistent and timely logs, though mistaken, would have been the best evidence that the violations were all an honest mistake.

I expect a lengthy list of penalties, but none of which are too severe. Despite Michigan's status as a repeat violator due to the Ed Martin case, the death penalty is clearly not in the cards. [Editor's note: I think this is meant to be reassuring.] Neither are more severe penalties like a postseason or TV ban. In fact, Michigan doesn't even need to vacate wins (unless it self-imposes) because these violations do not affect eligibility. I think you'll see a list like this:

- A reduction in countable coaches (one coach will have to be reassigned to a noncoaching position);

- A reduction in practice with a shorter spring season in 2011 and/or reduced hour limits;
Possibly recruiting restrictions, including limiting the number of coaches off-campus at any one time;

-Possibly a reduction of around three scholarships for a year or two;

-3-4 years probation (longer due to repeat violator status)

Combined I think they are a setback (which they're intended to be), but they aren't program crushing penalties that will take years to crawl out from like the Ed Martin penalties were.