Michigan vs Notre Dame Preview

*I want to pre-note this post with the truth that I am very torn between my head and heart on this game.  My head says one thing and my heart says another.  So I am going to write this and hope one is clear winner by the time I'm done.

Michigan at Notre Dame
Time: 3:30 EST
Location: South Bend
TV: NBC
Weather: 60% Rain and a high of 70 degrees
Line: ND-4

Remember when the Michigan - ND game was a defensive battle?  Where a winning score would be 14-10?  Not these days, last years 38-34 Michigan win was the highest scoring battle in the history of the series.   Most media members are expecting another shootout between these two historic college football programs.

Similar to last week, this is another match up between 3 former Big East head coaches with Kelly at UC, RR at WVU and Greg Robinson at Syracuse.  Both QB's on each side don't have a ton of playing experience: Denard Robinson got spot playing time last year and Dayne Crist is a junior but really made his debut last week as well.

So how do they match up?  Lets go to the tail of the tape:

Michigan Offense vs ND Defense = Michigan
Michigan has advantages at both running and passing the ball against the ND D.

ND Offense vs Michigan D = ND
Michigan Run D vs ND Running game is close to a push in my mind.  The big advantage comes with the ND Passing game vs Michigan secondary.

Special Teams = Push 
Neither one is especially strong.  Hopefully Darryl Stonum can repeat his strong kick off returns against ND like he did last year.

Intangibles = ND
Something strange always happens when Michigan visits ND.  Some examples: wind stops on and ND winning field goal, It rains so hard that Michigan fumbles a 100 times, Lou Holtz plays for a tie, a ball ends up a shoulder pad of a defender on a pass play, and so on. 


Here is what scares me being a Michigan fan. 

#1 Michael Floyd - Michigan could not stop him or Golden Tate last year at all.  (that was with Woolfolk, Boubacar and Warren)

#2 Denard's first road and rivalry game - That is a lot to handle for the guy making all the headlines this week.

#3 South Bend has been a house of horrors for Michigan.  There is a 10% chance of rain today in South Bend and Sunday there is a 0%.  Saturday 60%.

#4 Michigan has one road win under RR.

This game is another clear example of which team gets the most stops will win.  Pretty basic right?  I think Michigan will do a decent job against ND's run game.   My biggest concern is if Dayne can get the ball down field to the ND's WR's.  Michigan has to protect the ball and can't visit fumbleville like they did during their last visit.  Neither team can afford to give the other free points or short fields. 

Sing Hail to the Victors if:

• Michigan gets a lot of pressure on Crist.
• Michigan shows some new wrinkles in the passing game (like the deep ball).
• No turnovers.
• Someone can catch a punt.
• Greg Robinson's past success against ND can even out Michigan's bad luck in SB.  Remember his Syracuse teams weren't very good but were pretty successful in South Bend.

Worry if:

• Dayne turns into Joe Montana on Saturday
• ND runs the ball effectively with Armando Allen
• Brian Kelly has a solution to stop Denard's run game

Brian Kelly feels that Denard is just a running back playing QB.  Michigan fans disagree and hope he can showcase his passing skills against ND.  The run fake, then pass should be effective in moving the ball down field against the ND defense.  Picks and fumbles concern me in this game.  The game two years ago is still fresh in my mind and worries me even more if it rains again.  I sort of have a strange feeling we may see Tate for a few series, mostly if Michigan gets behind and has to pass.  There are many questions on both teams coming off week one wins.  I think RR knows what type of team he has, not sure Brian Kelly knows his fully yet.  I think this will be a close game and one mistake might be the difference.   I wouldn't want to prepare for Denard and that "running back comment" should be plenty of motivation for Saturday.  I'm going with Heart!   Michigan 28  ND 21


Go Blue!

Michigan Monday: ND Has a Big Recruiting Weekend

BNL has a famous song called "Brian Wilson".  A line from that song is "lying in bed just like Brian Wilson did".  Well, Brian Kelly certainly hasn't been "lying in bed" during his first few months on the job as head man of the Fighting Irish and this weekend it paid off on the recruiting trail. 

Brian was able to land 4 star Michigan running back Justice Hayes on Friday.  Then Friday afternoon 4 star Miami DE Anthony Rabasa gave his verbal commitment to ND.  On Friday night 3 star CB from Texas, Jalen Brown made it a hat trick for the Fighting Irish. 

Not a bad Friday, right?  Well, Brian wasn't done.  On Saturday morning he landed 4 star DE from Florida, Aaron Lynch.  Now that's a recruiting weekend. 

As Michigan fans, we don't particularly like when ND does positive things, but you have to admit they had quite a big recruiting weekend for the 2011 class.   They got a player from Michigan (with a Wolverine offer) and two from Florida where Michigan really focuses a lot of recruiting effort.

• The Wall Street Journal says Year 3 is good for new coaches:  Year three, statistically speaking, is when it all starts to come together—when the no-longer-new coach's recruits and systems settle into place, and the team reaches new heights. The records of college football's current major-conference coaches bear this out: They had a .548 win percentage in years one and two combined, then a .627 mark in year three.

• Ann Arbor.com's writer Dave Birkitt predicts the 5 most common questions RR will hear on Monday during Big Ten's Media Day:  Who is going to start at QB?  Will the defense be any good? How many wins does he need to save his job? Is Michigan ready for the NCAA in two weeks? Is Molk and Vincent Smith healthy?   

• Threet is in a QB battle at ASU.

• Remember when Michigan had good linebackers?  I do and David Harris was one of them.  He gets some run in the NYT. 

Michigan Tuesday: Recruiting Tidbits and News and Notes

• Munchie Legaux a 2010 QB from New Orleans who continued to have Michigan in his top 5 after Gardner and Jones had committed to the Wolverines picked Colorado on Monday. There was zero chance Munchie was coming to Michigan with Tate, Denard and Devin in the mix. I also watched him at the Disney 7 on 7 last summer and his QB skills seemed very raw.

• Bill Martin pushed a couple of students working in the Regents area of the Press Box on two separate occasions. Bill was trying to get in with out a pass.

• 2010 recruit Drew Dileo says Michigan is interested in him returning punts.

• If you haven't noticed Morgan Trent has been getting some time for the first place Cincinnati Bengals and has been playing pretty well in Nickel situations. The problem is the TV announcers keep calling him Trent Morgan.

• 2010 Safety recruit Bobby Swigert picked Boston College over Michigan and Stanford.

• Here comes the Michigan should have hired other coaches articles: Jim Harbaugh and Brian Kelly. Those are two good coaches and both might have done a fine job at Michigan, but I'm not sure even those guys could of worked a miracle with the talent that was left on the team after Lloyd Carr rode into the sunset. Jim never would have gotten the job after throwing Michigan under the bus a number of times and there is a reason why Brian Kelly doesn't keep getting these jobs at big time programs (I just don't know what it is?).

• Think RR is going to be fired if/when they miss a bowl game for the second straight year? Bill Martin, says no. "He's not going anyplace," Martin said of Rodriguez, who replaced Lloyd Carr, who retired after the 2007 season following 13 years as head coach.
  
  "Rich is an outstanding coach. There is no question he's got my total support. I think the world of that guy. Is he perfect in every respect? Nobody is. But he works hard. He'll get it right."
  
  Martin and Rodriguez shared an emotional moment together after Saturday's 38-36 loss to Purdue, which won at Michigan Stadium for the first time since 1966.
  
  "It was a very emotion-filled time for Rich and myself after the game," said Martin, who said the Purdue loss was particularly hard to bear. "He helped me, I helped him (after the game). I think this loss was hard on all of us. It was hard on Rich, it was hard on me.
  
  "But this guy is a winner. This guy's not used to losing."
  

Everyone Loves a Good Coordinator

If I am Brian Kelly, Brady Hoke, or Turner Gill, I have to wonder what I have to do to get a premier coaching job these days? This "hiring" season has to be titled the Year of the Coordinator! It's crazy how many coordinators are getting college head coaching jobs.

Breaking News: It seems head coach "in waiting" at Texas and defensive coordinator Will Muscamp will be named the new Auburn head football coach today. Auburn interviewed but did not hire, Turner Gill, Brady Hoke, and Tulsa's Todd Graham before choosing Will. Of course this will be looked at as an solid hire since Will was in such huge demand and most likely turned down the Washington job. Update: Will is saying he is not going to Auburn.

Syracuse: tried to hire a current head coach but Skip Hotz turned down the job. Which was actually a smart move, I'm not sure Syracuse is a better job then East Carolina anyway. Now, The Big Orange is planning on naming New Orleans Saints' offensive coordinator Doug Marrone. That same Doug Marrone who just lost in overtime to the Bears last night. I'm sure Doug is a good coach but to choose him over Brady Hoke and or Turner Gill is crazy in my mind.

Washington: Also got "one of the hottest" coordinators in the country in hiring USC's offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. I really can't argue with this hire, he is from out West, he knows the PAC 10, and is a great recruiter. Very good choice.

Tennessee: Picked another former USC offensive coordinator who had a "cup of coffee" in the NFL as a head football coach with the Raiders. Lane Kiffin has been a head football coach for a total of 20 games. So most of his experience comes from being a coordinator under Pete Carroll since 2005.

New Mexico: Hired Illinois offensive coordinator Mike Locksley. I believe this is a great pick up and that Mike was another "hot" commodity in the coordinator ranks. No offense to the New Mexico program but this is the type of job a very good coordinator should be getting.

Mississippi State: Hired Florida offensive coordinator Dan Mullen who now has to decide to build his staff and recruit or coach in the National Championship Game which is played sometime in mid-January. I think this was a solid hire, but I would have leaned to someone with some head coaching experience.

So there you have it, 5 "Big Time" college football job openings and all of them (depending on how your rate Lane Kiffin) went to a former coordinator. I think college athletic directors are getting to focused on trying to find the next great coach and passing up 3 really good candidates with leadership skills. These AD's should know more then anyone that everyone doesn't have leadership skills. Do you really want your new head coach learning his job at the expense of your program? Sure, some of these guys will do well but others will fail. If it was my couple of million dollars a year, I sure would want a guy that knew how to captain the ship.

These three guys, Brian Kelly, Brady Hoke, and Turner Gill should be leading top college programs. Brady now has to interview with San Diego State, Brian is happy at Cincinnati if they double the capacity of their stadium and get a practice field, and Turner Gill keeps doing something with nothing at Buffalo. I can't believe how many AD's missed the boat on these 3. Keep your chin up boys, the Notre Dame Job will be open next year!

Being Bill Martin

"He's the lonely man there on the corner, who he is waiting for I don't know. But he waits everyday now, just waiting for that someone to show" - Phil Collins

What's it like being Bill Martin these days? He has to answer to just about everyone on this historic hire for Michigan Football. This is the most important hire since Bo back in 1969. Here are just a few things that Bill has to think about each day.

• His current boss most likely wants her BFF Kirk Ferentz, who she hired at Iowa


• The overall public believes that Les Miles is a lock, since he is a Michigan man


• Many people that read blogs like this one or mgoblog believe Brian Kelly, Cincinnati Head Coach is a good fit


• Some in the Media would argue that Jeff Tedford fits the bill at Michigan perfectly


• Then people start wondering about timing: Do you hire a coach before Bowl Season or after? Before a conference championship game or after? How does it all effect the current list of recruits that have verbally committed? Texas AM and Ole Miss hired their coach of choice in a day. Bill haven't you been putting together a plan since September?


• Bill has to interview DeBord and English but neither is truly a real candidate. (they better not be - I would take English over DeBord any day).


• He has to work with this new search committee, which just met for the first time yesterday. Good to hear we have a Heisman trophy winner on the job!


• and by the way you have a Day job sir! Your new basketball coach with very little talent takes on BC tonight.

Bill has done a nice job saving the Baseball Coach and getting a real Basketball Coach. Now he has the Grand Daddy of all hires looking him straight in the eye. Will he make everyone happy? Nope. That's impossible, but he better make the right decision for the football program and that decision needs to be a fresh face with a new approach. The old school approach doesn't play well around here anymore.

Michael Rosenberg makes his case for Jeff Tedford. It's a good read with some valid points.

Angelique S. Chengelis says that Les will be contacted as early as Sunday. Also the DeBord has support from people like the "golden boy" Tom Brady. Yikes Tom!

A source saying The Captain is staying at Iowa. Maybe we can all take a breathe now.

Captain Kirk?

What happens if we play Western Michigan?

Brian at mgoblog is reporting a "rumor" with some facts behind it that Michigan has offered it's head coaching job to Kirk Ferentz of Iowa. As you might remember, Iowa got beat by Western Michigan last week.

Why Kirk? Well, Michigan's President Mary Sue Coleman is good friends with Kirk and hired him at Iowa. Kirk is always rumored and has been offered NFL jobs in the past. He is known as a solid coach, but this year was not his best with some bad losses (including Western Michigan and Iowa State). He is also the highest paid coach in the Big Ten and in the top 5 paid coaches nationally. (He made close to $5 million last year!)

Brian believes that "the Captain" will most likely turn down the offer in his loyalty to Iowa and that Michigan will never confirm it was offered.

Brian also breaks a "rumor" that the Grand Valley State's AD has been contacted by two programs doing research on Brian Kelly. Those two schools are Michigan and Norte Dame.

My thoughts:

Kirk is a safe pick for Michigan. He is a solid coach and would continue right where Lloyd left off. I think he is a good man and a good fit for Michigan. With that said, I don't think he is the right fit, right now. The reason being, at Michigan we want things that Lloyd brought to the program including; loyalty, pride, character and always putting Michigan first. I agree with all that, but we also need a good guy that will bring some new ideas and a fresh approach to game strategy. I don't believe Kirk would do that. I believe we would see a lot of the same conservative approach that we all have gotten used to. There has to be a candidate that can bring the Michigan philosophy along with a fresh new approach. Kirk's 6-6 record this year and poor recruiting doesn't bring the change Michigan needs.

If he was hired: I would support it, but not my first choice.

If Mike Debord is hired: I will jump off a bridge.

This also means, Les Miles is not Michigan's #1 candidate.

Glad Michigan is looking at Brian Kelly. Interesting that Norte Dame is as well.

Goodtime Charlie might be on the way out?

Also: There are now a number of jobs available out there and Michigan can not wait to get their top guy. Nebraska and Texas AM are good jobs that some people will jump at. For example, Bo Pelini the DC at LSU might be a candidate for Nebraska and a candidate for LSU if Les left.