It's something to think about isn't it. We all know Michigan for years were piling up Big Ten Championships only to get beat by USC in trips to California. Now could Ohio State be trending the same way?
The OSU fans that read this blog will give us a 100 different reasons why OSU is not like Michigan. I will give you a few reasons why OSU is trending just like Michigan was the last 7-10 years.
Here are some of my thoughts on why the Buckeyes might be trending that way:
- How many times did we read this after Michigan got beat by USC in the Rose Bowl?: "They did everything we saw on film, nothing changed," said USC linebacker Rey Maualuga. (Rey is speaking about Ohio State)
- I'm not sure what it is about coaches that are comfortable in their jobs getting very predictable. But many national columnist are saying that Jim Tressel has gotten that way. We all know Lloyd Carr was maybe the most predictable coach in the nation the last 10 years but is Tressel now on the same path? Did you see a good game plan against USC? I sure didn't.
- Not sure if it's from Pete Carroll getting fired at all his NFL stops but he really doesn't seem to have this problem. Coaches need to innovate and not get stale when it comes to coaching their teams. Let's use Tiger Woods for an example: he is the most talented golfer in the world but has gone through two major swing changes as a pro with two different coaches. He realized that he had to make major changes to stay the #1 golfer in the world.
- OSU is 0-9 vs the SEC
- Michigan's problem is the PAC 10. Michigan is 16-13 against the PAC 10 all time. Not exactly dominating for the program with the most wins in history.
- Both programs for years has built power teams to win games but that don't stack up against the elite teams nationally.
- Justin Boren
- The Michigan game factor: Let's be honest, 80% of the Buckeye nation would be happy with beating Michigan every year. For the first time in a long time, I am starting to feel from the Buckeye Nation that beating a down Michigan team isn't enough anymore. Getting embarrassed on the biggest stage in the last three years, is starting to take effect on Buckeye Pride.
- Schedule: Is the schedule doing OSU any favors? I have to admit they have worked the system for two years now, with back to back trips to the National Championship game. With the Big Ten not exactly fielding the strongest teams nationally (See the bowl record below) Should OSU be scheduling less Akron's and more BCS schools? I think the answer is yes. Big Ten Bowl Records: Last season 3-5, In 2006 2-5, In 2005 3-4, In 2004 3-3.
- Part of the scheduling issue is Ohio State lack of long term contracts with any non-conference BCS schools. No Michigan vs ND, No ND vs USC, No Iowa vs Iowa State. Why? There are plenty local BCS schools that would run at a chance to sign a 10 year contract with the Buckeyes. Examples: Cincinnati, Louisville, Kentucky, Tennessee, and yes even Notre Dame. Memo to Columbus: Kentucky plays in the SEC, it would be a great way to improve your record.
So I'm sure there are many other reasons for or against this argument and the last thing a Buckeye wants to be compared to is a Wolverine. (they are even worried that due to global warming that the Buckeye tree might find it's way to Michigan). But after beat downs in South Bend and in LA both teams are feeling pretty low these days. One team is still ranked in the top 20 with thoughts of Big Ten Titles and a BCS Bowl Game running through their heads, the other is just trying to turn a "battle ship" while keeping their bowl record alive. Should be fun to watch over the next 5 years.
When I asked a Buckeye grad yesterday, how things were going, he replied, "not so well after Saturday". I just told him, "welcome to my world".
7 comments:
Big House
You've brought this topic up several times in the past few months and I took a pass on responding. You know how I feel about your take on this subject. In your post you asked.....
"Is the schedule doing OSU any favors? I have to admit they have worked the system for two years now, with back to back trips to the National Championship game. With the Big Ten not exactly fielding the strongest teams nationally (See the bowl record below) Should OSU be scheduling less Akron's and more BCS schools?"
How did OSU "work the system" the last two years? In 2006 they were the undisputed #1 team in the nation. They had beaten #2 Michigan and #3 Texas during the year (They even played UC that year) and dominated the rest of the Big-10. I don't think there was any "working the system" that year. In 2007 their late season loss to Illinois knocked them from #1 to #7 in the polls. I did not have a problem with the fall after the stupid loss at home. We all spent the three weeks after the Michigan game watching as the #1 through #6 teams all lost games dropping below OSU in the rankings. Again, how did OSU "work the system?" They were the receipient of good luck and timely losses by teams ranking ahead of them. Good or bad....right or wrong....that's how the system works. I think it's hard to fault any team for backing into the title game under these circumstances. My opinion in December was that there may have been several teams that were equally deserving to be in the title game but NO teams that were more deserving. I think it's being too critical say that OSU should not have been in that game. LSU and Florida were great teams that played great games against OSU teams that played tentatively and made lots of mistakes. The problem was with the players and coaches not the schedule they played. It's just as easy to counter with the assumption that those teams would have beaten any team in the same way they handled the Buckeyes.
Additionally, I disagree (as you know) with your assessment that "Part of the scheduling issue is Ohio State's lack of long term contracts with any non-conference BCS schools. No Michigan vs ND, No ND vs USC, No Iowa vs Iowa State." I just can't make the connection between the two that you see as being so obvious. There is not a coach in the world that would willingly add dangerous non-conference games on a long-term basis in this day and age. Granted UM-ND qualifies but that rivalry was created before the current structure was put in place so that doesn't count. I do not think either team would have been so eager to eastablish this rivalry from scratch in this day and age. Besides, I'd rather OSU play a wide range of top non-conference teams (Texas, USC, Tennessee and The U have been or will be on the schedule) instead of Cincinnati on a regular basis. I just don't see any benefit to adding the long term contract with one of the teams you suggested. You take ND and more or less split the games with them. I'll take the teams I listed above and hope for the same.
Buckeye John
One more thing......I totally agree that Ohio State is becoming more predictable on both sides of the ball. I was hoping to see special blitz packages and new offensive sets against USC. The fact that we saw more of the same falls directly on the coaches shoulders. I think it's time for Bollman and Heacock to go. The team has taken on the attitude of the coaches. They play tentatively and without emotion in games turing potential easy wins in games with OU type schools into nailbiters and big games against top teams into blowouts. I want to see more of the emotion and passion that comes with the type of approach that Pete Carroll takes with his team. Some would say that Tressel is just as much at fault as the coordinators. I say that as long as he can continue to recruit at the highest levels, keep the program more or less on the straight and narrow and beat Michigan more often than not he can stay.
Well done BJ, I think you are proving some of my points. It's not about just beating Michigan anymore, it's about winning NC's. No matter if your coach goes 11-1 and loses to Michigan or 1-11 and beats Michigan, the game is important but the bigger prize is the hardware at the NC game. BTW: You are right about 2006 and OSU deserved to be in the NC game. Here is OSU's non-conference opponents over the past 3 years: Youngstown State twice, Ohio, Akron, Troy, Wash (not your fault), Kent, Northern Ill., USC, Texas, and Cincy. You have played 2/3 good teams in 3 years. Is it a far jump to make that those games haven't prepared OSU for the better teams? Because the Big Ten sure hasn’t prepared anyone. BTW: in 2009 USC at home – good game. Navy, New Mexico, and Toledo .
I think coaches do still schedule difficult match ups. Illinois just signed today a home and away with Fresno State, The Florida Teams all play each other even though they are mostly in different conferences. Rivalry games are played with more passion and are harder to win, if a good team can go through an entire season playing quality opponents, they will be better prepared for Bowls/Championship games. The SEC is a perfect example. OSU can’t do anything about the quality of the Big Ten but they sure can do something about their non-conference schedule. Yes, the two year agreements with Texas and USC are fun but they are not long term answers for OSU’s scheduling. Are you saying a 10 year with Kentucky or Cincy is too tough? Schedule a long term rival and still play USC.
Just because I can shoot even par at my local par 3 course doesn’t mean I am ready for the US Open. OSU needs to play some harder courses if they are going to win the big prize. Michigan is going through a major swing change, does OSU need a minor one? That is the question you should be thinking about. What changes need to be made to be better? It’s hard for me to say but beating Michigan is no longer the water mark, beating USC, LSU, Florida, and others is.
Big House Bob
I think there is a difference between scheduling Fresno State for two years and scheduling Cincinnati for 10 years. To answer one of your questions "Yes...it would probably considered too dangerous to schedule a local BCS team for a long period of time." Every major team takes a little heat for beating up on other in-state schools. If we were to win the first 9 games against Cincinnati and lose the last game in the 10th year we would still come out on the losing end of the popular opinion. Besides I still can't make the assumption that if we had been playing Cincinnati instead of Youngstown State in the first game we would have played better against USC or in the Florida and LSU games in years past. Additionally, playing Cincinnati would still not equate to playing any team in the top half of the SEC, Big 12 and even the Pac-10 for that matter. Let me try to make my point in different words. Florida, USC, Georgia (insert any other elite team here…Oklahoma) are great teams for three reasons. #1 They are well coached, #2 They recruit tons of 4 and 5 star recruits who play in schemes that take advantage of their skills and #3 They play in great conferences where the level of play is superior to other conferences. Is Florida a better team for playing Florida International/Atlantic or because they play in the tough SEC? The same could be asked with Georgia and Georgia Southern or LSU and Louisiana Monroe. My point is that it's not the non-conference games that define a year, it's the conference games.
I've never bought into the concern over the national perception of the Big-10. I read about it pretty much every day so I know that it's how pretty much everyone feels about the conference. I say...WHO CARES? You figure out a way for the rest of the teams in the conference to elevate their games to match the level the Ohio State has been playing at the last several years and the negative national perception will be mitigated to some degree. When that happens then we can chat back and forth about what the conference needs to do to make the jump to be on par with the SEC, Pac-10 etc.
I like your analogy of "swing changes." I would certainly agree that OSU needs to tweak a few things. I would like to see them make changes to the coordinator spots on both sides of the ball. Like I said in my earlier comment and you pointed out in your post, both sides of the ball are becoming too predictable. In my opinion, if we fix those problems, our improved play in big (and small) games will improve effectively mitigating your strength of schedule theory.
One more thing.....and I've said this before. I still place a premium on beating Michigan and winning the Big-10. Those are two areas that either team can control with their play on the field. I do not buy into the theory that playing for the BCS Title needs to be the only goal. The process that determines who plays in the game is full of holes. We’ve discussed that point and are in agreement. Even if
Enjoy your bye week. I’ll have a full report from the "Shoe" on Monday.
Your comments are a deserved indictment of the alleged "Super Coach" Schembechler who could beat up the "Little Eight" of the Big Ten, and sometimes beat OSU and often get upset by MSU and Purdue, but rarely fair well against the Pac-10.
Lloyd Carr was a continuation of this tradition.
Once RR gets this team rolling, watch out. He's cut from a different cloth. In three games, he's called more fake punts and gone for it on fourth down more times than Michigan has in the last 40 years! Michigan finally has an elite coach who's innovative AND has the guts to go for the win.
Michigan might lose six more games this season, but they WILL beat OSU. (And Pryor will realize he made the wrong choice: a Ferrari is best driven by a race car driver NOT an middle aged dude in a sweater vest.)
Go Blue.
Anonymous - I'm pretty sure I wasn't indicting Coach Schembechler with my thoughts posted above. I guess both UM and OSU have spent time over the last several decades playing conservative...predictable football. Certainly UM is changing that practice this year with a new coach. I'm not advocating that type of change at in Columbus. I'd like to see the coaches do a better job of getting players to play UP to their abilities.
As for your prediction for the Game this year......Good Luck!!!!
Buckeye John
My "you" referred to the original blogger whose writing I was commenting on.
One way to get players to play up to their abilities is to play in an aggressive style that depends on--trusts-- their abilities. I think players in the SEC and PAC-10 have more fun! It's not just the fans that like exciting football, the players like playing it too.
I stand by my prediction of The Game, but am also realistic enough to accept your wishes of Good Luck. May the best team win, my friend!
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