Saturday, January 1, 2022

The House Always Wins

Yesterday, I used the analogy that Michigan was playing with "House Money".  Which they immediately spent on the coin toss.   The game on the other hand was dominated by the 5-star casino known as the Georgia Bulldogs.  The Bulldogs beat Michigan in every aspect of the game and it wasn't close.  

The Georgia offense played exactly how I wanted the Michigan offense to run.  They got the passes out quickly so Hutch and DO couldn't get close and had a run game that got 8-10 yards on every carry.  The Bulldog defense on the other side of the ball lived in Michigan's backfield by blitzing and reading Michigan's mail.  

Michigan's talent and program is not on the level of a Georgia and Alabama, and it was quite obvious last night.  In fact, that seems to be a trend for the CFP Semifinals, which averages a 3 TD win margin in these games.  Last night the winning margins where 21 and 23 points. 

I was not overly surprised at the outcome, but I was surprised at how badly Gattis and Macdonald got out coached.  If the offensive game plan was for Cade to have a ton of time, it was a bad one.   You have to break tendency when another team has a month to prepare for you and has crazy talent at every position.  The only thing Michigan broke was coverages.  I suspect there was some issues with Cade not hitting his first read as he got pulled for JJ, who was a bright spot on the night.  

Another positive for Michigan fans during the game was that they scored a TD and 2-point conversion to shine up an ugly winning margin.  It's not a good feeling hoping for a TD to make the score look better. 

  • WTF is the deal with the Cook Family - Michigan - and the Orange Bowl?
The CFP has to change:
  • NYE is a terrible night for 2 big games 
  • The matchups are always blowout 
  • Michigan-Cincinnati would have been a much better game
  • Is the National Championship rematch tv ratings going to be hurt due to a matchup we saw a few weeks ago?
  • I feel terrible for Michigan fans that dropped thousands of dollars for that performance.  
Ok, Michigan got man handled last night.  Who gives a shit?   Herbie and Fowler were talking how this might negatively affect what Michigan accomplished this year, is a bullshit take.  Georgia and Bama are football factories, Michigan is a highly respected academic university, these two things are not the same.  Sure, Brian Kelly chased dollars at LSU but he also knew he was never going to win a National Championship at ND.

This is why I have been consistent with my take that Michigan has 1 goal every year and it's the Big Ten Championship.  The CFP is a made for TV tournament to generate lots of dollars.  Georgia was the 3rd ranked team in a 4-team tournament?   Get the F out of here.   Not even SEC teams have to play Georgia and Alabama in back-to-back weeks.   Add more teams and restructure this damn thing.  

It was a great season and nothing from last night should tarnish that.  Michigan beat Ohio State and won the Big Ten Championship game.   That is all that matters this year and every year.   

Go Blue!


Chowman said...

There is a talent gap between the SEC and the B1G. The SE is one of the most fertile recruiting grounds in the nation, and its right in the SECs backyard. I'm not going to say academics never come into play, but the simple truth is why would most of those kids leave the south to go play in the Midwest? Playing football in November is lot nicer in Athens or Tuscaloosa then AA. Sure Michigan might get 1 out of 10 or 15 high level recruits to leave an SE state, but the remainder decide to stay home. That why, even though Michigan and the Midwest don't produce the number of high level recurits, its imperative that Michigan and other Midwestern programs don't let those kids leave home.

MichiganMan said...

I'm little disappointed on their performance last night but not disappointed for the season... There's got to be some reward for being higher rank on the final college football standings.... Team with the higher ranking should have a home field advantage and play the game at home instead of playing somewhere else... The whole system is broken and is stupid....

Blue for life
No more mention of done Brown good luck to him in Massachusetts

ScottyDoggs said...

Can not really add to Bob's comments, but "double down on his request to expand the "playoffs", I heard a neighbor tell me the plans are on hold for expansion...I myself do not know....16 teams and get it over with, even if the last 12th game of season is incorporated in it!

Voice of Reason said...

I am a fan, I admit it. Sometimes it's very difficult for me to be totally objective when it comes to my sports teams. However, when I have something on the line I have to force myself to be objective thereby doing my research and finding the facts. It was clear to me that Michigan was not properly prepared to start this game and Georgia was. Michigan players seemed like the stage was too big for them, they made mistakes that they hadn't made since the msu game, eg, missed assignments, turn overs etc. Josh Gattis doesn't personally make passes, catches or run the ball and so if the players mess up it's on them, however, he (questionably) didn't make the adjustments needed early enough to increase the team's offensive success. Michigan seemingly lost this game by half-time on both sides of the ball...but at least the DC made adjustments in the second to hold Georgia to one TD if Michigan was able to offensively get back in the game or was close enough to make a run. Even Kirby Smart admitted that Georgia was not effective in the second half. It seemed to me that JJ was the better option against Georgia but it may have been too little too late.

As for me, I am encouraged by the closeness of the second half play. All things considered they closed it out stronger and if they had played the first half that way undoubtedly our spirits would have been more encouraged even if we had lost. I expect Michigan to build upon the tenacity of their second half play for next year and take it up a couple of notches. I also expect since coach Harbaugh told the media that they put JJ in because JJ gave the team an ability that (by implication) Cade did not give them, that Cade may take offense and transfer next season; however, I hope not. Georgia and Alabama have been loaded with talent and playing at a high level for a very long time, this is just Michigan's first year back, and win or lose this was excellent experience for them (including the coaching staff). This is still a very young team believe it or not with the best players in the lower classes, so things should get better and Michigan should see the playoffs again in the near future. IMHO!!!

Goblu said...

Again, I’m proud of the team and the coaches for a great season. That wasn’t the game we wanted, but it’s a broken system (to be a broken record).
My hope for next season is no QB controversy. It seems JJ is our future, but would ideally like to see him redshirt this year (can he do that or played too many games?). Give Cade one more year, and let JJ shine for two after that. But, I’m fine with JJ taking the keys next year. Fun season, and GREAT blog!

BlueManGroup said...

If JJ is the QB we all believe he can be, he's going pro after 3 years. No 5 star recruits should ever be redshirted. No QB is also ensured to last a whole season without injury (especially a running QB that hasn't quite learned how to avoid contact). If I'm Cade, I stay (even if that means starting the season on the bench).

Goblu said...

Not sure you were understanding the comment… if JJ was still eligible to redshirt, he should. But he’s no longer eligible. Plenty of 5star players redshirt.

JDawg said...

Totally agree about having these games on NYE. I didn't like it. I was really bummed with how the game turned out, but not surprised. Winning the B1G and beating OSU was good for me this year, especially when most predicted a 4-5 loss season. The loss to MSU is what really burns me most. I would much rather have that win, as it would make the beatdown from Georgia feel a little better. All of my Sparty friends are rubbing it in that Michigan lost.

BlueManGroup said...

Five stars don't stay in college 5 years and don't sign with teams that plan to sit them their freshmen year. Never happens.

Goblu said...

Redshirt doesn’t mean stays in college for 5 years. And of course 5 stars have been redshirted. It’s simply a fact. Depending on how they develop many 5 and 4 stars stay for 4 years too. Blanket “never” type statements usually are easy to disprove, as most of life isn’t absolute.

MichiganMan said...

Guys this is my last comment for the season I'll be going away on a business trip to Dubai again once in spring and summer and another trip I have planned for Europe and also Malaysia.... I will be back before the season starts I just want to say there lot of good opinions here today... I think we had a good season and I wish our team best of luck for the future..
JJ should start next year if he gets hurt Cade will come in ...I don't see Cade transferring anywhere... Let's go get it!!

Blue for life

Justwin said...

I’m going to Djibouti, then Katmandú, then back to Djibouti, on my way to Latvia and a short hop to Papúa New Guinea. Thought you would all like to know.

BlueManGroup said...

Name one 5 star that stayed 5 years and was drafted in the NFL. Not many things are an absolute, but this is one that NEVER EVER EVER happens. Sorry bud. You're wrong on this one. 5 stars dont ever redshirt because 5 stars that redshirt are called 4 stars.

Goblu said...

You keep saying “stayed 5 years”. I never said that - go back and look. I also never said stayed 5 years and was drafted in nfl.

I said that 5 stars have in fact red shirted. That is a fact, bud.

Goblu said...

In fact, Georgia is saying they may red shirt TWO 5 star players this year. Sorey & Vandagriff. But those are just two of many who have.

BlueManGroup said...

What is the point of redshirting a guy (thereby not maximizing his full potential in his freshmen year) if you dont plan on him staying for 5 years? That is idiotic! You realize 5 stars are eligible for 4 years without a redshirt, don't you?

BlueManGroup said...

Both of those guys were injured and are coming off surgeries. I would view that as more of a medical redshirt, if anything. I would also add that UGA and Bama are unique in their ability to stockpile patient 5 stars. Those guys aren't coming to Michigan. Time will tell, but I believe a lot of those 5 stars were illegally paid to be patient. NIL may even things out. Regardless, 5 stars that redshirt are 4 stars.

Goblu said...

You redshirt kids, including 5 stars, for many reasons. Including to ensure they have eligibility if they get injured. If JJ hadn’t played as much as he did, of course Mich would have red shirted him. It’s crazy to say they wouldn’t have. You said it’s never happened. It has happened and does happen. Not sure why you seem so aggressive on this. What I have said is a fact - but you don’t like it based on your opinion. But it remains a fact.

Justwin said...

Weird debate. Yeah, it is indeed true that 5 stars have been redshirted. Not sure why someone would say otherwise. And yeah, of course JJ would have been redshirted if he didn’t max out this season. Why in the world would Michigan NOT do that??

BlueManGroup said...

JJ didnt redshirt because JJ played more than 4 games. Why did JJ play more than 4 games? Because JJ is a 5 star QB and probably would have transferred if JJ didnt play more than 4 games. Donovan Edwards played more than 4 games. If they hadnt played more than 4 games they would have redshirted. My point is that Michigan gets 1-2 5 stars if they're lucky. If they dont figure out a way to play that 5 star more than 4 games (barring injury), they are morons. If your point is that they should reshirt a 5 star if he only plays 4 games, I concur your obvious point Einstein. My point is you play a 5 star more than 4 games because he isn't staying 5 years, so the redshirt is worthless.

Justwin said...

Your argument seems to change with each post… but whatever. You originally said 5 stars are “NEVER” redshirted. Think you realize that’s now not accurate. So I’ll stop responding.

BlueManGroup said...

Checkmate. Off to Dubai!

dude1984 said...

Georgia had a better game plan which they almost flawlessly executed in the 1st half and a huge X-factor...a chip on their shoulder from their terrible showing in the SEC championship game. No team in college football would have beat them on Friday.

As for next season...the offense
Nothing against Cade McNamara, but the future is JJ McCarthy. Whether they go 100% McCarthy or do a split with McCarthy getting the majority of the snaps, JJ is the future. He’s has the tools to put Michigan over the top to compete against the elite teams in the SEC, Ohio State, and what I expect USC will become again.

With JJ running the offense, it’s time to update the offense to be:
1. A more upbeat tempo…not consistently fast, but when they have a defense on the ropes pick up the pace.
2. Motion heavy…have the defense show their coverage for eventual pre-snap audibles or play changes (this wouldn’t be an immediate thing) and possibly any blitz pre-snap.
3. A power spread that is built on
-RPOs with the option to run downhill with the RB or have the QB attack the edge
-QB rollouts (PA and non-PA)
-Check downs to the RBs and TEs
-The short passing game
--Specifically quick out and short slants

As for next season...the defense
I’m a bit worried about the defense losing three huge playmakers: Hutchinson, Ojabo, and Hill plus Ross, a solid veteran leader. Looking at their personnel I think they need a mentality change and should switch to a 34 or a “heavy” 43. I use heavy because they’d have at least 3 DL over 300 pounds on the field.

How would this work against an up-tempo offense…I think it wouldn’t matter too much because the point of the 34 DL and a “heavy” 43 DL is about gap control and stuffing the run. The pass rush comes from the LBs and DBs. It is a bend, but don’t break D with a focus on keeping the play in front of them. It’s about containment, not pursuit. Making the opponent work to get down the field.

The coverage should be balanced between zone and man, but the CBs should be pressing more often than not regardless of coverage. It requires a lot of misdirection for the blitzer or blitzers to come clean more often than not.

As for the playoff…
I hate it. It's pretty clear the SEC found a system to sneak in 2 teams every season. There is no doubt Georgia is a great team, but they crapped the bed against Bama in the SEC Championship game...they shouldn't have gotten a mulligan. The #3 spot should have been Cincinnati and Baylor should have been #4 as a P5 champ. The SEC is ruining college football.

I’d rather see them go back to the old bowl format with the BCS, but this time run the BCS (or whatever it would be called) through the end of the Bowl games. This will never happen, but it's fun to think about. This is how the NY6 would be formatted and what the 2021-22 games would be:
Rose Bowl
Big 10 Champ v. Pac 12 Champ
2021-22: #2 Michigan v. #11 Utah

Sugar Bowl
SEC Champ v. Big 12 Champ
2021-22: #1 Alabama v. #7 Baylor

Orange Bowl
ACC Champ v. SEC #2/ Notre Dame (ND gets auto bid if ranked in top 8)
2021-22: #12 Pittsburgh v. #5 Notre Dame

Fiesta Bowl
Pac 12 #2 or Group of 5 (Go5 auto bid if ranked in Top 8) v. Big 10 #2
2021-22: #4 Cincinnati v. #6 Ohio State

Peach Bowl
SEC #3 v. ACC #2/Notre Dame (ND gets auto bid if ranked 9-15)
2021-22: #8 Ole Miss v. #17 Wake Forest

Cotton Bowl
Big 12 #2 v. Best Available Group of 5/ SEC #2*
2021-22: #9 Oklahoma State v. #3 Georgia

*If ND gets the auto bid for the Orange Bowl, the SEC #2 gets auto bid for the Cotton Bowl; the BA Go5 team would go to whatever bowl game their conference is aligned to for their conference champ.

Same principle is in effect for the Pac 12 #2 in the Fiesta Bowl and ACC #2 in the Peach Bowl.