Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Michigan Tuesday: Prediction Time

We have been on a wild ride since the App. State curse or maybe even the Adidas curse.   We have seen RR come and go, Brady Hoke have a successful first year and then drop like a rock to the bottom of the pool.  Turning the battleship was not easy and probably wasn't even needed.  

Michigan now has one of the best head coaches in the country.  A guy that attended Pioneer for only one year but played his football at the University of Michigan.   Ann Arbor is home for him and it's great to have him back.  

We're in very good shape with the head coach position at U of M. 

Michigan really hasn't had a 3 down RB since Mike Hart.  DeVeon Smith took that position with a  very nice finish to the 2015 season topped off with a great performance in the Citrus Bowl, against one of the best rushing defensives in the country.    Since Smiths running style takes a ton of contact, Michigan can go 6 deep in back-ups.

Michigan's defense has been pretty good for a few years, lead by Greg Mattison.   Greg is still there but now Michigan has hired the Barron of the Blitz or the Prince of Pressure in Don Brown from BC.    We all expect Michigan's defense should be one of the best in the country. 

Head coach - Check!
Running Back - Check!
Defense - Check!

What's missing?  A QB that doesn't fold under pressure and doesn't make the big mistake.  It sounds a lot like Alabama's winning formula doesn't?   I don't think Jimmy is trying to use Saban's blue print but he is trying to build a power football team and not a Oregon style program. 

This is why the worst kept secret is that Wilton Speight will be the opening day starter.   A guy that seems comfortable under center now and seems to make the right decision.   Yes, O'Korn has a higher upside but the hope is, Wilton will make the right read at the right time.

QB - (I will let you know in a couple weeks)

Those are all the pieces you need folks.   Add an All American TE, a couple very good WR's.   Our cup runeth over my friends and this is the year to prove Michigan Football is officially back and here to stay. 

Pre-Big 10:  All at home and all wins  (Hawaii, UCF, Colorado)

  • Michigan will get tested with an improved Penn State team.  I don't see this as a blow out,  maybe a 24-13 game.  

  • I'm not sure what Wisconsin has this year, they aren't ranked and open at home against LSU.  I think Michigan easily out coaches and talents this team.   Michigan 31 Wisconsin 14.

  • Michigan doesn't play on the road until 10/8 with a trip to Rutgers.  I don't expect Rutgers is ready to play big boy football just yet.   Michigan wins big. 

  • Home again for Lovie Smith and Illinois.   Another Michigan win

  • On the road to East Lansing with something to prove.   Michigan wins a close game.

  • I was not sold on Iowa last year and the Rose Bowl proved it.  This will be a cold difficult game but I like Michigan here by a field goal. 

  • Maryland at home, they will be a better team by November, but Michigan will have too much talent.

  • Home against IU.  Please not again.  Michigan finds a way to win. 

  • This is the one game, I think Michigan might find too difficult.  Yes, the Wolverines have everything to play for but OSU has great coaching and talent.   Who will be healthy and who won't be?   Michigan loses to the Buckeyes
11-1 on the season and heading to the Rose Bowl. 

I don't like to think playoffs in the preseason, too many things can happen during the next 3 months.  Michigan's hardest games are away from the Big House (MSU, Iowa, OSU).  None of those games are gimmies for the Wolverines.  I also think Michigan has a great chance of winning in CBus this year, I just need to see this team play on the road first.  For example, it will take great QB play to win this game, is Wilton able to do that?

This team has two real question marks at QB and at LB.  That's it.  The QB will be protected by the running game and offensive line.  The LB's will be protected by a great Dline and Great DB's. 

It's a great problem to have.

Can't wait for Saturday.


Scott K said...

Going 12-0 is a tall order, a very tall order. I completely understand many people predicting a loss in the toilet seat in November.
I think we are more likely to drop one to Iowa. Barrett was such a threat because he had elliot, miller, thomas, vannett, marshal, etc. They are all gone. No doubt there are talented players moving into those positions, but look at the stats, 75% of the offensive production will be replaced by players with limited game experience.

We are starting the season with plenty of experience and will have another 11 games in by Nov. The injury bug can be a wild card, but having a 2 deep experience vs. 2 deep talented freshmen is a consideration as well.

I'm thinking with the benefit of 11 games of film, our coaches and players have a better shot at attacking the weaknesses in their learning curve with more success than they will have adjusting. Or so one hopes.


ScottyDoggs said...

Ohio State set a record with the amount of players that went in the April draft at such a high level in the draft (forgot numbers).

Bob says Ohio State can reload... I am saying they can not (even if it's just wishful thinking). Bob might have a much better idea what Ohio State has to replace the lost stars with... (I just hope he is wrong)

Scott K said...

They ranked #3, #7 and #4 in recruiting the last three years, no doubt they have a ton of talent. Losing the number of players they have to the NFL the last two years, especially the underclassmen, means they are very thin in experience.

3 more days....... Go Blue!!

Bob said...

There is talent there no doubt, the key is how they play during the year and which team is healthy at year end. I could see Ohio State taking a loss (or 2) before the Michigan game. They have to play at Oklahoma, at Penn State, at Wisconsin and at MSU.

Scott K said...

Imagine the situation in the toilet seat if barrett goes down to injury this year... I would love nothing more than to see a 3 or 4 loss season for urban liar, his failing health might start creeping back into the picture.

As you said, road games vs OK, PSU, WS and MSU, then the 11/26 clash.....
Its high time they cough up one of the early season stumbles that they've flirted with the last couple years, barely squeaking by Navy in '14, NIU last year.

Forward Falcons.... GO BGSU!

Big35Hurt said...

I'm sick of hearing that Ohio St has "more talent" than Michigan. They don't. Plain and simple. Michigan had very good recruiting classes the last couple Hoke years. We have a ton of seniors on this team. Yes, Ohio St is good, but Don Brown is THE X FACTOR in this game. You're not going to run on a Brown defense. Barrett isn't going to pick us apart through the air. That won't happen. We will beat the Scarlett Bitches by at least 10 pts this year. Guaranteed. The only game I'm worried about is the Sparty game.