Friday, September 25, 2015

BYU Preview

He points like Brady Hoke

Time: Noon EST
Location: Big House
Internet: Watch ESPN App
Weather: High 74 cloudy
Line:  Michigan -6.5

The Michigan betting line keeps creeping up, which surprises me. Does Vegas know something? 

BYU is the ranked team and has been a carnival ride this year.  Week one they won on a Hail Mary at Nebraska after their star QB goes out for the year again.  Week two they score 21 points in the 4th quarter to beat Boise State and lose to UCLA in week 3 by one point when their final drive failed.  

This team could easily be 3-0 or 0-3 but they arrive in Ann Arbor as 2-1. 

Tale of the Tape

BYU D-Line vs. Michigan O-Line = BYU
Michigan DB's vs. BYU Freshman = Michigan
Michigan D-line vs. BYU O-Line = Michigan
Big House vs. 9:00AM Kick Off = Michigan
Rudock vs. Decision Making = Push

When I started to look at BYU this week, everything jumped out to me.   Against Nebraska they gave up 319 yards in the air and 126 yards on the ground.  Against UCLA it was just the opposite, they gave up nearly 300 yards on the ground but only 106 yards in the air.   They also picked off the Josh Rosen 3 times.   UCLA tried to beat BYU in the air early and when Rosen struggled they decided to play power football for the win.  

That is good news for the Michigan if they can put up 300 yards on the ground.  It's also good news if they can open up that running game with Rudock going for 200-250 yards in the air. 

Sing Hail to the Victors if.........................
  • BYU is sleep walking with a noon start
  • Rudock is accurate and hitting Jake Butt
  • Michigan's defense can get pressure on the freshman QB
  • Michigan D causes 3 turnovers and has 4 sacks
  • Michigan O has zero turnovers
  • Michigan gets over 200 yards rushing
Yell, why can't we beat a ranked team? if...............................
  • Michigan gives up big plays on defense
  • Michigan doesn't finish the game
  • BYU QB Tanner Mangum looks more like a senior then a freshman
  • BYU's magic continues

BYU has been winning with big plays, of their 16 scoring drives this year 11 had plays over 20 yards in them.   They also seem to go 3 and out often.  Out of their 42 total possessions, 10 of them have been 3 and out.  Meaning Magnum somethings looks like a freshman and other times looks like a senior. 

Michigan seems to be the complete opposite of BYU.   They have had very few big plays and none in the air.   The Wolverines want to play power football and use the pass to open the running game.  BYU has had trouble running the ball and stopping the run.   They would prefer to spread you out and throw for big plays.   Those routes take time and hopefully Tanner gets to know Mr. Henry and Mr. Wormley often. 

We know what Michigan is going to do on offense and hopefully they look a bit better then they did last week.   Michigan will have to run the ball to be effective on offense but will also need to throw to open up the running lanes.  In my mind, I see a similar game plan to when Michigan played Utah.  Of course, Rudock has to play clean.  BYU wants to throw and Michigan will need to get pressure on the QB so he makes poor decisions.   If Michigan's secondary holds up and the defense line dominates, it could be a long day for BYU.   This is a key game for the Wolverines on what type of year they want to have starting the Big Ten season next week.   I think the time change and travel hurts BYU,  Michigan gets a win over a ranked team.   Knock The Ball Down!!

Michigan 27 BYU 21

1 comment:

dude1984 said...

BYU is a good team, but they are very beatable. Their run defense and pass blocking aren't that good. Add in a morning game two time zones ahead. I see this as a test for the secondary and if Rudock can play better.